Scenarios

A lot can change in the next 100 years.  While we can't predict what will happen to our climate and our environment with absolute certainty, we can come up with different scenarios to help us imagine the range of possiblilities for what the future might hold.  Scenarios are used in most climate change impact and adaptation assessments.  In the field of climate adaptation two different types of scenarios are used: GHG emission scenarios and socio-economic scenarios. 

GHG Emission Scenarios

We may witness a dramatic increase in population, economic activity, and energy use in some areas of the world, leading to a dramatic rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels: a “big growth” scenario.  On the other hand, we may see breakthroughs in technology and energy use that begin a steady fall in GHG emission levels: an “innovation” scenario.  Variables like population, economic development, energy use, land use and others will continue to affect the level of GHG emissions in different ways – and affecting the degree of climate change. Below are a number of tools that help map the changes in our climate we may expect in response to various scenarios.

• Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN) distributes climate change scenarios and adaptation research. Among the many tools here you’ll find:
  • maps that show how the climate will change against baseline data
  • scatterplots of various model scenarios
  • bioclimate profiles
  • graphs that show actual and modeled data for your community

• Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) is a division of the Climate Research Branch of Environment Canada. The CCCma carries out research in modelling and analysis, including:
  • developing computer models of the climate system to simulate global climate, regional climate, and local climate change
  • attributing observed climate changes to specific cause
  • projecting seasonal and longer term climate variations
  • analyzing past and predicted climate variations to gain a deeper understanding of the climate system
  • providing science–based information to the national and international community

Socio-economic Scenarios

Socio-economic scenarios look at social and economic changes in society and assess how those changes affect climate risks and the capacity of communities to respond.  Below are a number of tools that give guidance on how to incorporate socio-economic scenarios into impact and adaptation assessments.

• UK Socio Economic Scenarios Help explore what future worlds might look like and to consider how our vulnerability to climate change and adaptation responses might have to change to suit different situations (UK Climate Impacts Programme).

• US Socio-economic Scenarios Guidance Document Provides a framework for incorporating socio-economic scenarios into climate change impact assessments (National Assessment Synthesis Team).

• General Guidelines on the Use of Socio-economic Scenarios  In this document the IPCC advocates two approaches to incorporating socio-economic information into adaptation assessment (International Panel on Climate Change).

• Baseline Socio-economic Scenarios  This document provides guidance on how to develop and apply socio-economic scenarios to impact and adaptation assessments (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).